Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. They authors two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but each side has has something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
