It was two months prior when the young forward found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as the Villa manager scolded him over missing a through-ball. During that period, as the club failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if his performances were a sign or the source for Villa's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, though, the sideline response was much more joyous. When the in-form star drilled in his second strike to reclaim the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician tore off his winter coat, opened his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club were on their way to a 10th successive win and having failed to win their initial half-dozen games, are somehow a mere three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Challengers?
That’s a particularly tough question to answer. Past precedent, the traditional standing of the club, argues against it. Moreover, they've rarely been entirely convincing this season, even as the positive results have piled up.
As per the data, in only two games has the side registered an xG notably superior than their opponents. For a side that have strung together 10 in a row, they look curiously susceptible – however at the moment the fine lines are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy appears to be to exchange chances with an opponent and wait for their star man to save the day with a couple of precise efforts. It happened away to Leeds, it happened in London, and again against United.
Rogers' first goal came from a brilliant finish, bent just inside the post from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, Manchester United had more efforts and more efforts on goal. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those games.
A statistical correction might be the most significant challenge Villa have to face over the coming weeks. Their key man, almost certainly, will not continue to blasting the football into the top corner week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is a different scenario in which, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures may yet rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins could start adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent might become the player he was during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to return from injury, fortifying a sometimes shaky defence.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
Savoring the Moment
But then, nobody expected this. Nobody thought the team would sit third at Christmas. And most definitely two months ago, no one envisioned Rogers now would be leading a title charge while establishing himself as a crucial player for the national team.
This winning streak must be cherished exactly since it appears so improbable. When Rogers faced the home supporters at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he seemed to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are rare in football and should be relished.
